Future of 'Obama's Immigration Executive Order'

On October 3, 2016, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 4-4 deadlock, rejected a rehearing petition challenging an appellate court ruling that had halted the implementation of President Obama's immigration executive order. Initially, Texas led a coalition of 26 states in suing at a Texas-based federal court, arguing that Obama's 2014 order violated the Administrative Procedural Act by overstepping presidential discretion.

The coalition contended that amending or creating laws is a congressional prerogative, and that the President's order, which temporarily deferred deportation for undocumented immigrants, violated the principle of separation of powers. The coalition requested a federal district court to temporarily suspend the executive order, which the court accepted. The U.S. Department of Justice appealed to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which upheld the lower court's decision in November 2015. Subsequently, the Justice Department's appeal to the Supreme Court was ultimately dismissed on October 3, 2016.

It is crucial to note that the Supreme Court did not deliberate on the constitutional merits of the case. The absence of Justice Scalia resulted in a vacant seat, leading to the tie. Furthermore, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) continues to be in effect, with immigration authorities still accepting applications, including renewals.

Prospects of the Immigration Reform Order

The coalition of 26 states did not aim for a permanent suspension of Obama's executive order. With the election of a new U.S. President and appointment of a new Supreme Court Justice, a substantive review is likely. The judicial leanings of the appointed justice will serve as a pivotal factor. Ultimately, the resolution rests with Congress. Legislative outcomes could involve a full amnesty not in the form of an executive order, a compromise between full amnesty and Obama's reforms, or a legislative enactment embracing core elements of Obama's reforms. This will hinge on the election outcome and which party dominates Congress.

Some media reports suggest the end of deferral for undocumented immigrants, but it is premature to reach such a conclusion.